{
 "ablation": {
  "groups": [
   "1001",
   "1002",
   "1003",
   "1004",
   "1005",
   "1006",
   "1007",
   "1008",
   "1009",
   "1010",
   "1011",
   "1012",
   "1013",
   "1014",
   "1015",
   "1016",
   "1017",
   "1018",
   "1019",
   "1020",
   "1021",
   "1022",
   "1023",
   "1024",
   "1025",
   "1026",
   "1027",
   "1028",
   "1029",
   "1030"
  ],
  "incremental": {
   "competing_team_exposure": {
    "auc_baseline": 0.3690671031096563,
    "auc_with": 0.4024140752864157,
    "log_loss_reduction": {
     "estimate": 0.01914905660369876,
     "hi": 0.06938876394906336,
     "lo": -0.027356731328333342,
     "note": "baseline minus expanded held-out log loss per row; positive favours the expanded set"
    },
    "n_rows": 120
   },
   "diligence_breadth": {
    "auc_baseline": 0.3690671031096563,
    "auc_with": 0.4789279869067103,
    "log_loss_reduction": {
     "estimate": 0.060283229797135095,
     "hi": 0.12155108874524238,
     "lo": 0.008936588651603442,
     "note": "baseline minus expanded held-out log loss per row; positive favours the expanded set"
    },
    "n_rows": 120
   },
   "exec_forwarding_breadth": {
    "auc_baseline": 0.3690671031096563,
    "auc_with": 0.33797054009819966,
    "log_loss_reduction": {
     "estimate": -0.00807924466602687,
     "hi": -0.004075683417799248,
     "lo": -0.012618872345224337,
     "note": "baseline minus expanded held-out log loss per row; positive favours the expanded set"
    },
    "n_rows": 120
   },
   "stakeholder_support": {
    "auc_baseline": 0.35790273556231,
    "auc_with": 0.44452887537993924,
    "log_loss_reduction": {
     "estimate": -0.0017373244228520933,
     "hi": 0.018409699550174765,
     "lo": -0.021908497020196278,
     "note": "baseline minus expanded held-out log loss per row; positive favours the expanded set"
    },
    "n_rows": 115
   }
  },
  "log_loss_reduction": {
   "estimate": 0.030209197910552016,
   "hi": 0.10512252930649107,
   "lo": -0.044830973884477,
   "note": "baseline minus expanded held-out log loss per row; positive favours the expanded set"
  },
  "n_clusters": 30,
  "n_rows": 115,
  "note": "the expanded factors are measured during the process (by week 2), so this is early-signal prediction inside the simulator, not prediction from the pitch alone",
  "sets": {
   "baseline": {
    "auc": 0.35790273556231,
    "brier": 0.15501983156290192,
    "features": [
     "arm_research",
     "arm_upside"
    ],
    "log_loss": 0.497061935038242,
    "n": 115
   },
   "expanded": {
    "auc": 0.6413373860182371,
    "brier": 0.14700382130507625,
    "features": [
     "arm_research",
     "arm_upside",
     "exec_forwarding_breadth",
     "competing_team_exposure",
     "diligence_breadth",
     "stakeholder_support"
    ],
    "log_loss": 0.46685273712769,
    "n": 115
   },
   "prior": {
    "auc": 0.16767983789260385,
    "brier": 0.15173615342062127,
    "features": [],
    "log_loss": 0.48367921207299763,
    "n": 115
   }
  }
 },
 "arms": [
  "enterprise",
  "research",
  "upside",
  "enterprise-replicate"
 ],
 "concordance": {
  "enterprise|enterprise-replicate": 0.5,
  "enterprise|research": 0.7333,
  "enterprise|upside": 0.7,
  "research|enterprise-replicate": 0.6,
  "research|upside": 0.6667,
  "upside|enterprise-replicate": 0.5
 },
 "crn": {
  "pairs_same_prompt": 0
 },
 "elapsed_s": 636.5,
 "elicited_first_assessment": {
  "enterprise": {
   "eng": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.5,
      4.0667
     ],
     "mean": 3.767,
     "n": 30
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      3.8333,
      4.3333
     ],
     "mean": 4.1,
     "n": 30
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      3.7667,
      4.2333
     ],
     "mean": 4.0,
     "n": 30
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.3667,
      4.7
     ],
     "mean": 4.533,
     "n": 30
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.8333,
      4.3
     ],
     "mean": 4.067,
     "n": 30
    }
   },
   "fin": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.8667,
      4.4333
     ],
     "mean": 4.167,
     "n": 30
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.3,
      4.7
     ],
     "mean": 4.5,
     "n": 30
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.0333,
      4.4667
     ],
     "mean": 4.267,
     "n": 30
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.5,
      4.8333
     ],
     "mean": 4.667,
     "n": 30
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.9,
      4.4333
     ],
     "mean": 4.167,
     "n": 30
    }
   },
   "platform": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      2.6667,
      3.0
     ],
     "mean": 2.857,
     "n": 21
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      2.9048,
      3.381
     ],
     "mean": 3.143,
     "n": 21
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      2.5714,
      3.0
     ],
     "mean": 2.81,
     "n": 21
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.1905,
      4.7619
     ],
     "mean": 4.476,
     "n": 21
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.7143,
      4.1905
     ],
     "mean": 3.952,
     "n": 21
    }
   },
   "proc": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.8667,
      4.3333
     ],
     "mean": 4.1,
     "n": 30
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.4333,
      4.7667
     ],
     "mean": 4.6,
     "n": 30
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.3,
      4.6333
     ],
     "mean": 4.467,
     "n": 30
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.5,
      4.8333
     ],
     "mean": 4.667,
     "n": 30
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.9,
      4.6333
     ],
     "mean": 4.267,
     "n": 30
    }
   },
   "sponsor": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.6667,
      4.0
     ],
     "mean": 3.833,
     "n": 30
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.3667,
      4.8333
     ],
     "mean": 4.6,
     "n": 30
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.5,
      4.8333
     ],
     "mean": 4.667,
     "n": 30
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.9,
      5.0
     ],
     "mean": 4.967,
     "n": 30
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      4.2,
      4.6667
     ],
     "mean": 4.433,
     "n": 30
    }
   }
  },
  "enterprise-replicate": {
   "eng": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.6667,
      4.2593
     ],
     "mean": 3.963,
     "n": 27
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.037,
      4.4815
     ],
     "mean": 4.259,
     "n": 27
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.037,
      4.6296
     ],
     "mean": 4.333,
     "n": 27
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.6667,
      4.963
     ],
     "mean": 4.815,
     "n": 27
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.7407,
      4.1852
     ],
     "mean": 3.963,
     "n": 27
    }
   },
   "fin": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      4.0741,
      4.7037
     ],
     "mean": 4.407,
     "n": 27
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.4074,
      4.7778
     ],
     "mean": 4.593,
     "n": 27
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.2963,
      4.7037
     ],
     "mean": 4.519,
     "n": 27
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.4444,
      4.8148
     ],
     "mean": 4.63,
     "n": 27
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.7407,
      4.2593
     ],
     "mean": 4.0,
     "n": 27
    }
   },
   "platform": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      2.6154,
      3.2308
     ],
     "mean": 2.923,
     "n": 13
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      2.4615,
      2.9231
     ],
     "mean": 2.692,
     "n": 13
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      2.1538,
      2.8462
     ],
     "mean": 2.462,
     "n": 13
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      3.8462,
      4.4615
     ],
     "mean": 4.154,
     "n": 13
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.8462,
      4.6154
     ],
     "mean": 4.231,
     "n": 13
    }
   },
   "proc": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      4.0,
      4.5385
     ],
     "mean": 4.269,
     "n": 26
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.4615,
      4.8846
     ],
     "mean": 4.692,
     "n": 26
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.0,
      4.5385
     ],
     "mean": 4.269,
     "n": 26
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.5385,
      4.8846
     ],
     "mean": 4.731,
     "n": 26
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.6154,
      4.4615
     ],
     "mean": 4.038,
     "n": 26
    }
   },
   "sponsor": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.4815,
      3.8519
     ],
     "mean": 3.667,
     "n": 27
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.4074,
      4.8889
     ],
     "mean": 4.667,
     "n": 27
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.3704,
      4.7407
     ],
     "mean": 4.556,
     "n": 27
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.8889,
      5.0
     ],
     "mean": 4.963,
     "n": 27
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      4.1111,
      4.6667
     ],
     "mean": 4.407,
     "n": 27
    }
   }
  },
  "research": {
   "eng": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.7586,
      4.3448
     ],
     "mean": 4.034,
     "n": 29
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.3448,
      4.6897
     ],
     "mean": 4.517,
     "n": 29
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.1034,
      4.5172
     ],
     "mean": 4.31,
     "n": 29
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.6897,
      4.9655
     ],
     "mean": 4.828,
     "n": 29
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.6897,
      4.1034
     ],
     "mean": 3.897,
     "n": 29
    }
   },
   "fin": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      4.1379,
      4.6207
     ],
     "mean": 4.379,
     "n": 29
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.5517,
      4.8966
     ],
     "mean": 4.724,
     "n": 29
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.4138,
      4.7586
     ],
     "mean": 4.586,
     "n": 29
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.6552,
      4.931
     ],
     "mean": 4.793,
     "n": 29
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.6897,
      4.1034
     ],
     "mean": 3.897,
     "n": 29
    }
   },
   "platform": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      2.7059,
      3.2941
     ],
     "mean": 3.0,
     "n": 17
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      2.6471,
      3.2353
     ],
     "mean": 2.941,
     "n": 17
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      2.8824,
      3.5882
     ],
     "mean": 3.235,
     "n": 17
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      3.6471,
      4.2353
     ],
     "mean": 3.941,
     "n": 17
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.7647,
      4.1176
     ],
     "mean": 3.941,
     "n": 17
    }
   },
   "proc": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.8966,
      4.3448
     ],
     "mean": 4.138,
     "n": 29
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.5862,
      4.8966
     ],
     "mean": 4.759,
     "n": 29
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.3103,
      4.6552
     ],
     "mean": 4.483,
     "n": 29
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.6552,
      5.0
     ],
     "mean": 4.828,
     "n": 29
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.8276,
      4.5172
     ],
     "mean": 4.172,
     "n": 29
    }
   },
   "sponsor": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.8621,
      4.2069
     ],
     "mean": 4.034,
     "n": 29
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.8621,
      5.2414
     ],
     "mean": 5.069,
     "n": 29
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.6897,
      5.0
     ],
     "mean": 4.862,
     "n": 29
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      5.0,
      5.1034
     ],
     "mean": 5.034,
     "n": 29
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      4.2069,
      4.6207
     ],
     "mean": 4.414,
     "n": 29
    }
   }
  },
  "upside": {
   "eng": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.6207,
      4.1724
     ],
     "mean": 3.897,
     "n": 29
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.0345,
      4.4483
     ],
     "mean": 4.241,
     "n": 29
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      3.8966,
      4.2414
     ],
     "mean": 4.069,
     "n": 29
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.6552,
      4.931
     ],
     "mean": 4.793,
     "n": 29
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.7931,
      4.4138
     ],
     "mean": 4.103,
     "n": 29
    }
   },
   "fin": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.8276,
      4.4828
     ],
     "mean": 4.138,
     "n": 29
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.5172,
      4.8276
     ],
     "mean": 4.69,
     "n": 29
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.2069,
      4.5517
     ],
     "mean": 4.379,
     "n": 29
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.5517,
      4.8621
     ],
     "mean": 4.724,
     "n": 29
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      3.8621,
      4.4138
     ],
     "mean": 4.138,
     "n": 29
    }
   },
   "platform": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      2.8824,
      3.2353
     ],
     "mean": 3.059,
     "n": 17
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      2.8235,
      3.7647
     ],
     "mean": 3.294,
     "n": 17
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      2.4706,
      3.2353
     ],
     "mean": 2.824,
     "n": 17
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      3.8824,
      4.4706
     ],
     "mean": 4.176,
     "n": 17
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      4.1176,
      4.7647
     ],
     "mean": 4.412,
     "n": 17
    }
   },
   "proc": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.4643,
      3.8929
     ],
     "mean": 3.679,
     "n": 28
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      4.5,
      4.8929
     ],
     "mean": 4.714,
     "n": 28
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      3.8929,
      4.25
     ],
     "mean": 4.071,
     "n": 28
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.6429,
      4.9286
     ],
     "mean": 4.786,
     "n": 28
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      4.0714,
      4.9643
     ],
     "mean": 4.536,
     "n": 28
    }
   },
   "sponsor": {
    "cost_justified": {
     "ci": [
      3.5172,
      3.8276
     ],
     "mean": 3.69,
     "n": 29
    },
    "strategic_value": {
     "ci": [
      5.1034,
      5.4828
     ],
     "mean": 5.276,
     "n": 29
    },
    "support": {
     "ci": [
      4.4138,
      4.7586
     ],
     "mean": 4.586,
     "n": 29
    },
    "technical_merit": {
     "ci": [
      4.8276,
      5.0
     ],
     "mean": 4.931,
     "n": 29
    },
    "vendor_risk": {
     "ci": [
      4.6207,
      5.1379
     ],
     "mean": 4.897,
     "n": 29
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "engine": "0.3.0",
 "examples": [
  "s1001-enterprise",
  "s1002-upside",
  "s1003-research",
  "s1013-enterprise-replicate"
 ],
 "journal": {
  "calls": 1211,
  "completion_tokens": 1419498,
  "entries": 1211,
  "hits": 0,
  "prompt_tokens": 3109403
 },
 "leaves": 31,
 "model": "deepseek-flash",
 "n_runs": 120,
 "n_seeds": 30,
 "negative_control": {
  "a": "enterprise",
  "b": "enterprise-replicate",
  "ci": [
   -0.1,
   0.4
  ],
  "concordance": 0.5,
  "difference": 0.1667,
  "discordant": 15,
  "n_pairs": 30,
  "outcome": "engaged",
  "p": 0.3018
 },
 "preregistration": "d32b89d53b9fae0f46e87b41fdb92d02b5521552e0bd7376e52f4f70ab320af7",
 "primary": [
  {
   "a": "upside",
   "b": "enterprise",
   "ci": [
    -0.2333,
    0.1667
   ],
   "difference": -0.0333,
   "discordant": 9,
   "n_pairs": 30,
   "outcome": "engaged",
   "p": 1.0,
   "p_holm": 1.0
  },
  {
   "a": "research",
   "b": "enterprise",
   "ci": [
    -0.2,
    0.2
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "discordant": 8,
   "n_pairs": 30,
   "outcome": "engaged",
   "p": 1.0,
   "p_holm": 1.0
  }
 ],
 "process": {
  "enterprise": {
   "acquisition_proposed_share": 0.0,
   "aware_week2_mean": 3.9,
   "blocks_per_run": 0.3,
   "contested_share": 0.0333,
   "decided": 29,
   "forwards_per_run": 8.133,
   "internal_build_proposed_share": 0.6333,
   "invalid_actions": 29,
   "messages_per_run": 18.467,
   "objections_per_run": 0.0,
   "platform_aware_week2_share": 0.3667,
   "platform_ever_aware_share": 0.6333,
   "proposals_per_run": 1.5667,
   "support_spread_ci": [
    0.6112,
    0.8382
   ],
   "support_spread_mean": 0.7257,
   "turns_per_run": 11.967,
   "unreadable_replies": 17,
   "weeks_hist": {
    "1": 0,
    "10": 0,
    "2": 2,
    "3": 3,
    "4": 8,
    "5": 5,
    "6": 3,
    "7": 4,
    "8": 3,
    "9": 1
   },
   "weeks_to_decision_ci": [
    4.4483,
    5.8276
   ],
   "weeks_to_decision_mean": 5.138,
   "weeks_to_decision_median": 5
  },
  "enterprise-replicate": {
   "acquisition_proposed_share": 0.0,
   "aware_week2_mean": 3.3,
   "blocks_per_run": 0.0333,
   "contested_share": 0.0,
   "decided": 25,
   "forwards_per_run": 5.4,
   "internal_build_proposed_share": 0.3,
   "invalid_actions": 15,
   "messages_per_run": 13.6,
   "objections_per_run": 0.0,
   "platform_aware_week2_share": 0.2333,
   "platform_ever_aware_share": 0.3667,
   "proposals_per_run": 1.0667,
   "support_spread_ci": [
    0.41,
    0.7115
   ],
   "support_spread_mean": 0.5597,
   "turns_per_run": 8.7,
   "unreadable_replies": 12,
   "weeks_hist": {
    "1": 0,
    "10": 0,
    "2": 1,
    "3": 5,
    "4": 11,
    "5": 4,
    "6": 2,
    "7": 2,
    "8": 0,
    "9": 0
   },
   "weeks_to_decision_ci": [
    3.84,
    4.8
   ],
   "weeks_to_decision_mean": 4.28,
   "weeks_to_decision_median": 4
  },
  "research": {
   "acquisition_proposed_share": 0.0,
   "aware_week2_mean": 3.467,
   "blocks_per_run": 0.1333,
   "contested_share": 0.0,
   "decided": 28,
   "forwards_per_run": 6.267,
   "internal_build_proposed_share": 0.4333,
   "invalid_actions": 22,
   "messages_per_run": 16.7,
   "objections_per_run": 0.0,
   "platform_aware_week2_share": 0.0667,
   "platform_ever_aware_share": 0.2,
   "proposals_per_run": 1.3333,
   "support_spread_ci": [
    0.4907,
    0.7459
   ],
   "support_spread_mean": 0.6193,
   "turns_per_run": 10.433,
   "unreadable_replies": 7,
   "weeks_hist": {
    "1": 0,
    "10": 0,
    "2": 2,
    "3": 4,
    "4": 10,
    "5": 4,
    "6": 3,
    "7": 3,
    "8": 0,
    "9": 2
   },
   "weeks_to_decision_ci": [
    4.1071,
    5.4286
   ],
   "weeks_to_decision_mean": 4.75,
   "weeks_to_decision_median": 4.0
  },
  "upside": {
   "acquisition_proposed_share": 0.0,
   "aware_week2_mean": 3.633,
   "blocks_per_run": 0.1333,
   "contested_share": 0.0,
   "decided": 29,
   "forwards_per_run": 5.567,
   "internal_build_proposed_share": 0.5,
   "invalid_actions": 9,
   "messages_per_run": 15.233,
   "objections_per_run": 0.0,
   "platform_aware_week2_share": 0.1667,
   "platform_ever_aware_share": 0.3,
   "proposals_per_run": 1.4,
   "support_spread_ci": [
    0.5187,
    0.7948
   ],
   "support_spread_mean": 0.6581,
   "turns_per_run": 9.267,
   "unreadable_replies": 5,
   "weeks_hist": {
    "1": 0,
    "10": 0,
    "2": 1,
    "3": 6,
    "4": 9,
    "5": 7,
    "6": 4,
    "7": 1,
    "8": 1,
    "9": 0
   },
   "weeks_to_decision_ci": [
    4.0,
    5.0
   ],
   "weeks_to_decision_mean": 4.483,
   "weeks_to_decision_median": 4
  }
 },
 "proposal_fates": {
  "enterprise": {
   "internal_build": {
    "blocked": 9,
    "open": 1,
    "ratified": 4,
    "superseded": 6
   },
   "pilot": {
    "ratified": 25,
    "superseded": 2
   }
  },
  "enterprise-replicate": {
   "decline": {
    "ratified": 1
   },
   "internal_build": {
    "blocked": 1,
    "open": 1,
    "ratified": 4,
    "superseded": 3
   },
   "pilot": {
    "open": 2,
    "ratified": 20
   }
  },
  "research": {
   "internal_build": {
    "blocked": 4,
    "ratified": 3,
    "superseded": 7
   },
   "pilot": {
    "ratified": 25,
    "superseded": 1
   }
  },
  "upside": {
   "internal_build": {
    "blocked": 4,
    "ratified": 5,
    "superseded": 8
   },
   "pilot": {
    "ratified": 24,
    "superseded": 1
   }
  }
 },
 "secondary_contrasts": {
  "acquisition_exploration:enterprise-enterprise-replicate": {
   "ci": [
    0.0,
    0.0
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "acquisition_exploration:research-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    0.0,
    0.0
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "acquisition_exploration:upside-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    0.0,
    0.0
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "internal_build:enterprise-enterprise-replicate": {
   "ci": [
    -0.2,
    0.2
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "internal_build:research-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    -0.1667,
    0.1
   ],
   "difference": -0.0333,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "internal_build:upside-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    -0.1333,
    0.2
   ],
   "difference": 0.0333,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "no_decision:enterprise-enterprise-replicate": {
   "ci": [
    -0.3,
    0.0
   ],
   "difference": -0.1333,
   "p": 0.2188
  },
  "no_decision:research-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    -0.0667,
    0.1667
   ],
   "difference": 0.0333,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "no_decision:upside-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    -0.1,
    0.1
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "pilot:enterprise-enterprise-replicate": {
   "ci": [
    -0.1,
    0.4
   ],
   "difference": 0.1667,
   "p": 0.3018
  },
  "pilot:research-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    -0.2,
    0.2
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "pilot:upside-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    -0.2333,
    0.1667
   ],
   "difference": -0.0333,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "rejected:enterprise-enterprise-replicate": {
   "ci": [
    -0.1,
    0.0
   ],
   "difference": -0.0333,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "rejected:research-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    0.0,
    0.0
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  },
  "rejected:upside-enterprise": {
   "ci": [
    0.0,
    0.0
   ],
   "difference": 0.0,
   "p": 1.0
  }
 },
 "seeds": [
  1001,
  1002,
  1003,
  1004,
  1005,
  1006,
  1007,
  1008,
  1009,
  1010,
  1011,
  1012,
  1013,
  1014,
  1015,
  1016,
  1017,
  1018,
  1019,
  1020,
  1021,
  1022,
  1023,
  1024,
  1025,
  1026,
  1027,
  1028,
  1029,
  1030
 ],
 "stages": [
  {
   "id": "first_response",
   "note": "The pitch reaches only the business sponsor's inbox. The label classifies the sponsor's first turn (the first week they were available): a proposal, mail to colleagues, diligence requests, or nothing.",
   "title": "Initial response"
  },
  {
   "id": "circulation",
   "note": "Who had seen the pitch itself by the end of week 2: the sponsor, plus anyone sent the deck or the fact sheet, or a mail that is or forwards the pitch. The competing internal team sees it only if a colleague sends it.",
   "title": "Circulation by week 2"
  },
  {
   "id": "diligence",
   "note": "Kinds of vendor diligence (technical, financial, security, reference) requested before the first proposal was filed. The vendor's answers are fixed text, identical in every arm, delivered a week later.",
   "title": "Diligence before proposal"
  },
  {
   "id": "first_proposal",
   "note": "The first proposal filed and who filed it. Only roles with the right may file a kind; partnership needs technical and financial diligence delivered first, acquisition exploration needs financial.",
   "title": "First proposal"
  },
  {
   "id": "alignment",
   "note": "What happened to that first proposal: ratified (every required approver approved or approved with conditions), blocked by a role holding a block right, superseded by another ratified proposal, or still open at week 10.",
   "title": "Fate of first proposal"
  },
  {
   "id": "terminal",
   "note": "The first ratified proposal's terminal state, or no_decision if nothing was ratified in ten simulated weeks.",
   "title": "Terminal state"
  }
 ],
 "study": "executive-endgames",
 "terminals": {
  "enterprise": {
   "ci": {
    "acquisition_exploration": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "internal_build": [
     0.0531,
     0.2968
    ],
    "no_decision": [
     0.0059,
     0.1667
    ],
    "partnership": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "pilot": [
     0.6644,
     0.9266
    ],
    "rejected": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ]
   },
   "counts": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0,
    "internal_build": 4,
    "no_decision": 1,
    "partnership": 0,
    "pilot": 25,
    "rejected": 0
   },
   "engaged": 25,
   "engaged_ci": [
    0.6644,
    0.9266
   ],
   "entropy_bits": 0.7703,
   "n": 30,
   "share": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0.0,
    "internal_build": 0.1333,
    "no_decision": 0.0333,
    "partnership": 0.0,
    "pilot": 0.8333,
    "rejected": 0.0
   }
  },
  "enterprise-replicate": {
   "ci": {
    "acquisition_exploration": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "internal_build": [
     0.0531,
     0.2968
    ],
    "no_decision": [
     0.0734,
     0.3356
    ],
    "partnership": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "pilot": [
     0.4878,
     0.8077
    ],
    "rejected": [
     0.0059,
     0.1667
    ]
   },
   "counts": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0,
    "internal_build": 4,
    "no_decision": 5,
    "partnership": 0,
    "pilot": 20,
    "rejected": 1
   },
   "engaged": 20,
   "engaged_ci": [
    0.4878,
    0.8077
   ],
   "entropy_bits": 1.372,
   "n": 30,
   "share": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0.0,
    "internal_build": 0.1333,
    "no_decision": 0.1667,
    "partnership": 0.0,
    "pilot": 0.6667,
    "rejected": 0.0333
   }
  },
  "research": {
   "ci": {
    "acquisition_exploration": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "internal_build": [
     0.0346,
     0.2562
    ],
    "no_decision": [
     0.0185,
     0.2132
    ],
    "partnership": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "pilot": [
     0.6644,
     0.9266
    ],
    "rejected": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ]
   },
   "counts": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0,
    "internal_build": 3,
    "no_decision": 2,
    "partnership": 0,
    "pilot": 25,
    "rejected": 0
   },
   "engaged": 25,
   "engaged_ci": [
    0.6644,
    0.9266
   ],
   "entropy_bits": 0.8118,
   "n": 30,
   "share": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0.0,
    "internal_build": 0.1,
    "no_decision": 0.0667,
    "partnership": 0.0,
    "pilot": 0.8333,
    "rejected": 0.0
   }
  },
  "upside": {
   "ci": {
    "acquisition_exploration": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "internal_build": [
     0.0734,
     0.3356
    ],
    "no_decision": [
     0.0059,
     0.1667
    ],
    "partnership": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ],
    "pilot": [
     0.6269,
     0.9049
    ],
    "rejected": [
     0.0,
     0.1135
    ]
   },
   "counts": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0,
    "internal_build": 5,
    "no_decision": 1,
    "partnership": 0,
    "pilot": 24,
    "rejected": 0
   },
   "engaged": 24,
   "engaged_ci": [
    0.6269,
    0.9049
   ],
   "entropy_bits": 0.8519,
   "n": 30,
   "share": {
    "acquisition_exploration": 0.0,
    "internal_build": 0.1667,
    "no_decision": 0.0333,
    "partnership": 0.0,
    "pilot": 0.8,
    "rejected": 0.0
   }
  }
 },
 "transitions": [
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 22,
    "enterprise-replicate": 20,
    "research": 24,
    "upside": 23
   },
   "from": "alignment:ratified",
   "to": "terminal:pilot",
   "total": 89
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 19,
    "enterprise-replicate": 17,
    "research": 20,
    "upside": 20
   },
   "from": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "to": "first_proposal:pilot by business sponsor",
   "total": 76
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 19,
    "enterprise-replicate": 17,
    "research": 20,
    "upside": 20
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:pilot by business sponsor",
   "to": "alignment:ratified",
   "total": 76
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 14,
    "enterprise-replicate": 13,
    "research": 16,
    "upside": 17
   },
   "from": "circulation:4 aware",
   "to": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "total": 60
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 12,
    "enterprise-replicate": 13,
    "research": 14,
    "upside": 16
   },
   "from": "first_response:circulated + diligence",
   "to": "circulation:4 aware",
   "total": 55
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 8,
    "enterprise-replicate": 5,
    "research": 5,
    "upside": 5
   },
   "from": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "to": "first_proposal:internal_build by competing internal team",
   "total": 23
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 8,
    "enterprise-replicate": 4,
    "research": 2,
    "upside": 4
   },
   "from": "circulation:5 aware, incl. competing team",
   "to": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "total": 18
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 8,
    "enterprise-replicate": 4,
    "research": 2,
    "upside": 4
   },
   "from": "first_response:circulated + diligence",
   "to": "circulation:5 aware, incl. competing team",
   "total": 18
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2,
    "enterprise-replicate": 2,
    "research": 8,
    "upside": 5
   },
   "from": "circulation:3 aware",
   "to": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "total": 17
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 4,
    "enterprise-replicate": 4,
    "research": 3,
    "upside": 5
   },
   "from": "alignment:ratified",
   "to": "terminal:internal_build",
   "total": 16
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2,
    "enterprise-replicate": 2,
    "research": 8,
    "upside": 4
   },
   "from": "first_response:circulated + diligence",
   "to": "circulation:3 aware",
   "total": 16
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 4,
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 3,
    "upside": 4
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:internal_build by competing internal team",
   "to": "alignment:ratified",
   "total": 14
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 3,
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 4,
    "upside": 3
   },
   "from": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "to": "first_proposal:pilot by engineering exec",
   "total": 13
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 3,
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 4,
    "upside": 3
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:pilot by engineering exec",
   "to": "alignment:ratified",
   "total": 13
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2,
    "enterprise-replicate": 2,
    "research": 1,
    "upside": 2
   },
   "from": "circulation:1 aware",
   "to": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "total": 7
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2,
    "enterprise-replicate": 2,
    "research": 1,
    "upside": 2
   },
   "from": "first_response:circulated + diligence",
   "to": "circulation:1 aware",
   "total": 7
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 1,
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 2
   },
   "from": "circulation:2 aware",
   "to": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "total": 6
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 3,
    "research": 2,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:internal_build by competing internal team",
   "to": "alignment:blocked by finance exec",
   "total": 6
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 1,
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 2
   },
   "from": "first_response:circulated + diligence",
   "to": "circulation:2 aware",
   "total": 6
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 1,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "circulation:1 aware",
   "to": "diligence:no diligence",
   "total": 5
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 1,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "diligence:no diligence",
   "to": "first_proposal:none filed",
   "total": 5
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 1,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:none filed",
   "to": "terminal:no_decision",
   "total": 5
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 3,
    "research": 1,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "first_response:held",
   "to": "circulation:1 aware",
   "total": 5
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2,
    "research": 2,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "first_response:proposed pilot",
   "to": "circulation:4 aware",
   "total": 5
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2,
    "research": 1,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "alignment:blocked by finance exec",
   "to": "terminal:pilot",
   "total": 4
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 1,
    "enterprise-replicate": 2,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "circulation:3 aware, incl. competing team",
   "to": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "total": 4
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 1,
    "enterprise-replicate": 2,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "first_response:circulated + diligence",
   "to": "circulation:3 aware, incl. competing team",
   "total": 4
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 1,
    "research": 1
   },
   "from": "alignment:blocked by finance exec",
   "to": "terminal:no_decision",
   "total": 2
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 2
   },
   "from": "alignment:open at week 10",
   "to": "terminal:no_decision",
   "total": 2
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2
   },
   "from": "circulation:4 aware, incl. competing team",
   "to": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "total": 2
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "diligence:all 4 kinds",
   "to": "first_proposal:internal_build by engineering exec",
   "total": 2
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1,
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:internal_build by engineering exec",
   "to": "alignment:ratified",
   "total": 2
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 2
   },
   "from": "first_response:circulated + diligence",
   "to": "circulation:4 aware, incl. competing team",
   "total": 2
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 1
   },
   "from": "alignment:superseded by pilot",
   "to": "terminal:pilot",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1
   },
   "from": "alignment:superseded by rejected",
   "to": "terminal:rejected",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1
   },
   "from": "circulation:4 aware, incl. competing team",
   "to": "diligence:3 kinds",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1
   },
   "from": "diligence:3 kinds",
   "to": "first_proposal:pilot by business sponsor",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:internal_build by competing internal team",
   "to": "alignment:open at week 10",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise": 1
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:internal_build by competing internal team",
   "to": "alignment:superseded by pilot",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:internal_build by competing internal team",
   "to": "alignment:superseded by rejected",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1
   },
   "from": "first_proposal:pilot by business sponsor",
   "to": "alignment:open at week 10",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "upside": 1
   },
   "from": "first_response:proposed pilot",
   "to": "circulation:3 aware",
   "total": 1
  },
  {
   "arms": {
    "enterprise-replicate": 1
   },
   "from": "first_response:proposed pilot",
   "to": "circulation:4 aware, incl. competing team",
   "total": 1
  }
 ],
 "tvd": {
  "enterprise|enterprise-replicate": 0.1667,
  "enterprise|research": 0.0333,
  "enterprise|upside": 0.0333,
  "research|enterprise-replicate": 0.1667,
  "research|upside": 0.0667,
  "upside|enterprise-replicate": 0.1667
 }
}