{
 "study": "executive-endgames",
 "written": "2026-10-28, before the final run; the pilot (seeds 101-103, 12 runs, 121 model calls) is excluded from every analysis",
 "spec": "research/studies/market-perception/executive-endgames/spec.json",
 "spec_preregistration_hash": "d32b89d53b9fae0f46e87b41fdb92d02b5521552e0bd7376e52f4f70ab320af7",
 "question": "Holding the vendor's facts, price and diligence answers fixed, does the positioning of one pitch (research-institution, conventional enterprise-software, aggressive strategic-upside) change how often five simulated stakeholders with explicit decision rights end in an engagement (pilot, partnership or acquisition exploration)?",
 "primary_outcome": "engaged: the run's terminal state is pilot, partnership or acquisition_exploration",
 "primary_contrasts": [
  [
   "upside",
   "enterprise"
  ],
  [
   "research",
   "enterprise"
  ]
 ],
 "test": "paired by seed (arms of one seed share the world, availability and turn-order streams); mean paired difference in engaged; exact two-sided sign-flip test; 95% CI by bootstrap over seeds (10,000 draws); Holm adjustment over the two contrasts; alpha 0.05",
 "negative_control": "enterprise vs enterprise-replicate (identical pitch, independent model samples): expected no difference; its concordance and distance are the noise floor for every other comparison",
 "secondary": [
  "share ending in each terminal state per arm (Wilson 95%)",
  "acquisition_exploration upside vs enterprise",
  "internal_build share",
  "weeks to decision among decided runs",
  "support spread (SD of last stated support)",
  "binding blocks per run",
  "transition counts between stages"
 ],
 "seeds": [
  1001,
  1002,
  1003,
  1004,
  1005,
  1006,
  1007,
  1008,
  1009,
  1010,
  1011,
  1012,
  1013,
  1014,
  1015,
  1016,
  1017,
  1018,
  1019,
  1020,
  1021,
  1022,
  1023,
  1024,
  1025,
  1026,
  1027,
  1028,
  1029,
  1030
 ],
 "runs": 120,
 "model": "deepseek-flash via the repo's DeepSeek configuration, temperature 0.7, reasoning effort low, JSON mode",
 "budget": "at most 1,800 model calls for the main run (--max-calls 1800) and 400 for the sensitivity run",
 "exclusions": "none; an unreadable reply is a turn with no action, and an invalid action (wrong right, unknown recipient) is refused and logged",
 "sensitivity": {
  "spec": "spec-busy.json",
  "change": "availability 0.6 instead of 0.8",
  "seeds": [
   2001,
   2002,
   2003,
   2004,
   2005,
   2006,
   2007,
   2008,
   2009,
   2010
  ],
  "arms": [
   "enterprise",
   "research",
   "upside"
  ]
 },
 "changes_after_pilot": [
  "stance semantics stated in the prompt (conditional = approval with a binding condition; abstain = no position yet) and the ratification rule stated, after a pilot finance turn wrote that a build did not fit the budget yet marked it conditional"
 ]
}